Demand Forecasting in Retail and CG

Description

Demand Forecasting in Retail and Consumer Goods

The course provides a thorough grounding in key forecasting principles and concepts.  It is suitable for retailers operating in both category management and merchandise management environments.  

Who Is It Suitable For?

This program is designed for everyone involved in forecasting including merchandisers, buyers and supply chain managers. IT departments and vendors supplying and selling forecasting systems will benefit from a better understanding of the key processes and methods.

Course Objectives

By the end of this program, learners will be able to;

• Explain the theory, principles and practice of forecasting.
• Describe best practice forecasting processes.
• Be able to judge which are the best forecasting techniques to use in your business.

Detailed Content

Introduction

• Simple forecasting
• Pre-requisites to support good forecasting
• Demand forecasting
• Characteristics of an item

Forecasting Methods

• Simple moving average
• Weighted moving average
• Setting weights
• Averages or weighted moving average – limitations for forecasting
• Variance against plan
• Forecast profiles
• What is a profile?
• Using profiles
• Forecasting promotional lift using profiles

Forecasting accuracy

• Inventory review horizons
• Chain vs. store forecasting
• Chain or warehouse vs. store forecasting
• Measuring forecast error

More advanced forecasting

• Forecasting at a price
• Exponential smoothing
• Adjusting smoothing based on length of sales experience
• Smoothing factors
• Exponential smoothing with trend and seasonality
• Trend modifier
• Using seasonality factors
• New product profile
• Forecast profiles – advanced

Forecasting strategy

• Practical comments
• Category management
• Forecasting and allocation / replenishment
• Forecasting across the supply chain

At the end of each module there is a mastery test.  If the learner completes this test with a pass mark of 70% or more and also completes our short class survey, they will be issued with a certificate.

Benefits of Studying This Program

Learners studying this program will be able to review the forecasting methods they use and improve them as necessary. This will result in reduced forecast error, better on shelf availability, lower clearance markdowns and closer achievement of terminal stock targets.

Hours of Study

On average learners take 3 - 4 hours to study this course.

Resources Included

Blog articles on inventory management.

Pre-Requisites Necessary

A basic understanding of key retail processes, such as taught in the Buying and Merchandising Overview module.

After This Program

The next logical program in developing learners’ knowledge is Merchandising & Assortment Planning.